题目：State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: the Source of Fluctuations Matters 

报告人：FRANCESCO ZANETTI   副教授  牛津大学 

主持人：罗德明   教授   浙江大学经济学院 

时间：2020年10月23日（星期五） 下午 17:00-20:30
 

zoom会议 （会议ID： 645 4245 2591； 密码：744573）

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摘要：We develop a general theory of state-dependent fiscal multipliers in a framework featuring interaction between two empirically relevant goods market frictions: idle productive capacity and unsatisfied demand. Our key novel finding is that the source of economic fluctuations determines the cyclicality of fiscal multipliers. Policies that stimulate aggregate demand, such as government spending and consumption tax cuts, have multipliers that are large in demand-driven recessions, but small and possibly negative in supply-driven downturns. On the other hand, policies that boost aggregate supply, such as cuts in taxes on labor income and firms’payroll and sales, are ineffective in demand-driven recessions, but powerful if the downturn is driven by supply factors. Spending austerity, implemented by a reduction in government consumption, can be the policy with the largest multiplier in severe supply-side recessions and demand-driven booms, provided elasticities of labor demand and supply are sufficiently low. We obtain modelfree empirical support for our theoretical predictions by using a novel econometric specification that allows us to estimate spending and tax cut multipliers in recessionary and expansionary episodes, conditional on those being either demand- or supply-driven.

简历：Francesco Zanetti博士，牛津大学经济学系副教授。研究领域包括宏观经济学、货币经济学、以及应用计量经济学。目前担任国际学术杂志Journal of Money, Credit and Banking、Oxford Economic Papers、Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics副主编，以及Macroeconomic Dynamics联合主编。

浙江大学经济学院
浙江大学民营经济研究中心